Cutting the Asian Suez Canal at the ‘Kra’ – By Trevor Jayetileke
Source:Ceylon Today
The COVID-19 inflicted world economic slowdown/recession/depression forecasts for by the IMF compounded by ‘sabre rattling’ in the Indian Ocean over China by the US sabre rattling is like a bull in a china shop.
The only saving grace is energy, fossil fuels, regarded by the greenies as a devil in disguise who predict a dreadful world occurrence caused by its harmful co2 emissions that needs to be addressed by renewables like solar and wind. what i fear most is what will happen to the industrial world to be driven by new technology of the 4th industrial revolution when the proven reserves of fossil fuels are used up and not replaced in time by new discoveries due to cuts in exploration budgets mainly by oil majors as a result of the economic slowdown of the entire world as predicted by the IMF post COVID-19.
US No.1 producer of Petroleum
As a consultant in energy and analyst of world trends in the field of hydrocarbons, crude oil, natural gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the US through the new technology of fracking and horizontal drilling have moved the worlds balance of petroleum production from the Middle East to themselves in the present decade and become the No.1 producer of Petroleum in 2019 and now is also a net exporter of petroleum products after 40 years, taking pride of place from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The “Henry Hub” of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico Region is setting the LNG “Benchmark” and also now the swing producer of LNG in the World.
Donald’s Trump Card
The US has the unmatchable alliance reach with naval bases and treaties with Asian countries like Thailand who may even need the green light past US for cutting the Kra Canal. The flip side in this situation is that China has come from behind and is trying to snatch the US’s Kudos. With a Manufacturing/Supply Chain BASE of 1.3 Billion people, China has now stolen the march over the US using its cheap labour. Energy could turn out to be Donald’s Trump Card using its conventional/unconventional petroleum assets rather than going for the hard option which will hurt too many round the world now facing a Covid-19 affected economic disaster of unprecedented proportions.
Britain IRA Peace deal
Backing up my argument is the North Sea oil which Britain discovered over 40 years ago and wanting to bring it to the surface needed the big money which necessitated finding a solution to ending the protracted/acrimonious war with the IRA over Northern Ireland by signing a peace deal.
Quite recently ‘Leviathan’ gas rich Jewish Israel is about to sign a Historic Peace Deal with the United Arab Emirates which could happen before 3rd Nov’ 2020 .
The US has the clout and capacity to ensure the Asia Pacific the energy security which it lacks as its geographic region of Asia and Asia Pacific has less that 5 per cent of Proven crude oil reserves which includes China which is the world’s 2nd largest consumer of crude oil after the US. The present supply of crude oil comes through the Straits of Malacca for all in the Asia Pacific which is China’s dilemma and it needs un-interrupted supply been locked in the South China Sea. the demand for crude oil or LNG which is from the EAST with supplies that could be coming mainly of conventional crude/unconventional shale oil and shale gas as LNG from the US. China could do a deal with the US to square the Trade/Tariff imbroglio between them going on for the past 2 years causing collateral damage to the rest of the World. With Sri Lanka in the Middle of the Indian Ocean for ‘each and everyone’ and if Thailand and the US together agree cutting the Asian Suez Canal at the ‘Kra’ will be the ‘GAME CHANGER’ of the 21st Century for the Asia Pacific, will be peaceful and prosperous and rise as a result.
Trevor Jayetileke. B.Sc (Cey), Freelance Writer/Global Petroleum Analyst. On e-mail:- asgjaye@gmail.com
