QUESTION BEFORE AZERBAIJAN CLIMATE MEET – By N.S.Venkataraman
The next global climate meet (COP 29) is scheduled to take place in Azerbaijan in November, 2024.
While global climate meetings have taken place 28 times so far in different countries, these meetings have been marked by much fanfare, tall talk, impressive targets and some action plans too, particularly with regard to funding by developed countries to less developed countries.
Rising global temperature :
However, the ground reality is that in spite of such deliberations and action plans initiated during the global climate meetings , the global temperature is continuing to increase . As a result, erratic climatic and weather conditions are already witnessed in several parts of the world. It is now predicted by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) that the world would witness record high temperature that will be above the 1991 – 2020 reference period until the year 2028. The global mean near surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 deg.C and 1.5 deg.C. higher than the average over the years 1850 to 1900. Such figures send alarming signals, that the world should be concerned about.
Several global climate meets that have taken place with participation from Presidents and Prime Ministers from different continents have not resulted in any improvement in combating the climate change crisis . In such conditions, the forthcoming Azerbaijan climate meet may be viewed with scepticism and lack of confidence by the people across the world.
Need to reduce consumption of fossil fuel:
The essential requirement to overcome the climate crisis is that the global temperature rise has to be curbed drastically and ultimately stopped. There is universal agreement that the increasing emission of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane are the primary reasons for the temperature increase. Emission of such noxious gases happen due to the use of fossil fuel such as coal and crude oil and methane emission from the livestock, from crop lands such as flooded paddy cultivation which create methane emission through the decomposition of organic materials . The essential requirement is that the consumption and production of fossil fuels have to be significantly brought down immediately. This is not happening.
Tall targets to cut emission and little progress :
In the Paris Climate Meet , Glasgow Climate Meet and subsequent meeting, several countries have promised to curb emission and achieve zero emission level , with a time frame indicated by different countries as their target. While targets have been fixed, nothing worthwhile has happened so far to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel by these countries. . On the other hand, production and use of coal and crude oil have been steadily increasing.
The countries that produce crude oil in massive quantity such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, USA and others are unwilling to reduce the production of crude oil, as they claim that their reducing the production would adversely impact their national economy. In almost the same way, the countries using coal and crude oil in massive quantity like India, China, Indonesia and others are unwilling to reduce the consumption of coal and crude oil , claiming that reduction in the consumption of coal and crude oil would affect the economic growth of their countries . Obviously, the fossil fuel producing and consuming countries think that the objective to achieve the goal of reducing emission would undermine the other objective of sustaining the economic growth.
The net result is that neither the producers of crude oil and coal nor the consumers of crude oil and coal are willing to depart from their present position. In other words, the promises to achieve zero emission by different countries by curbing the production and consumption of fossil fuel sound hollow now.
Other options :
There are alternative eco friendly options to substitute use of fossil fuel for energy and feedstock use. However, such options which include use of green hydrogen, generation of renewable power ( solar , wind and hydro power ) , use of bio fuel, nuclear energy have limitations and they cannot be adequate in quantitative term , to substitute the fossil fuel in a large way. In the case of green hydrogen, there are issues with regard to the production cost due to various factors . Further, the requirement of green hydrogen to substitute use of fossil fuel is so large, that there would not be adequate availability of renewable power to produce green hydrogen..
In such situation, what is the way out to combat the climate change threat ?
Need for emission reduction without impacting economic growth
The solution for the vexed problem can be found only by reducing the demand for fossil fuel such as coal and crude oil, so that the consumption of fossil fuel would come down leading to reduction in the emission of noxious gases.
The question is how to reduce the demand / consumption , without affecting economic growth.
The only way seems to be to gradually and steadily reduce the global population , that would contribute to reduction in the energy consumption. It is seen that in some parts of the world , hunger is still prevalent which is largely due to the high level of population with little efforts to check the population growth.
Reducing the consumption of fossil fuel mean that the global population has to be gradually decreased to manageable level.
Increasing world population :
In the year 1960, the world population was 3.3. billion. The population increased to 6.15 billion in the year 2000 and further increased to 7.97 billion in the year 2022. The average annual growth rate was around 1.6% According to several studies, it is said that at the present level of population growth , the world population would be as high as around 10 billion by the year 2060.
Such population growth could create unmanageable scenario with regard to consumption of fossil fuel and generation of noxious emissions. It would lead to steep rise in global temperature, if the growth in the global population were to remain unchecked.
Azerbaijan Climate Meet should focus on the grim population issue :
The past 28 global climate meetings (COP ) have not improved the climate conditions. instead , over the years , the global climate crisis is becoming more intense.
While technology efforts should continue to identify and promote eco friendly energy source, the problem is too serious and calculated risk cannot be taken.
Under the circumstances, the only way out is that global population reduction target should be fixed and over populated developing countries should be firmly asked to reduce the population growth. Possibly, the developed countries can provide technological and financial support to over populated developing countries to reduce the population and steadily bring down the population density.
To ensure that the Azerbaijan climate Meet would not become a routine exercise , as it seems to have happened with regard to the earlier global climate meetings, the participants in the Azerbaijan climate meeting should take the bull by the horns and arrive at a population reduction target for the world. This seems to be the ultimate solution to check the emission levels and prevent global climate crisis.
