WHAT IS THE COMFORT POPULATION LEVEL FOR INDIA ?-by N.S.Venkataraman
When India attained independence in 1947, India’s population was around 360 million and the density of population was 117 per square kilometre. In subsequent period , the population in the country has been steadily increasing . At one stage , alarmed by the population increase, several experts pointed out that such population increase would lead to “population explosion”, that could cause several serious socio economic issues.
Accepting such view, the Government of India and state governments focused on controlling population growth by initiating several proactive measures and strong social campaign , with the famous statement “ next child not now and no child after two”. While this campaign caught imagination of the people , still the population continued to increase , though at a slightly lesser rate.
After the national emergency period imposed on the nation by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi ( June 25, 1975, to March 21, 1977), the governments in India have slackened or practically given up the population control measures. This was largely due to the fact that the population control measures became unpopular amongst people , since ,during the emergency period , several people were compulsorily sterilised against their will , using coercive methods by the then government in a few states.
At present, the population control policy of governments in India is conspicuous by near absence. During the last eleven years with Prime Minister Modi at the helm, population control is one subject about which the government has spoken little and acted little.
Now, with the national population uncontrollably increasing, with India emerging as the most populated country in the world and the Indian population density being 435 per square kilometre . population density in India is the highest amongst countries.
However, a new theory has been advanced in recent time in India that checking population growth can be counter productive, since such population growth can have several and overwhelming benefits. The situation is such that the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh State has gone to the extreme level of providing incentives for families giving birth to third child.
What view against population control ?
The thrust of the argument of those opposing population control is that steady growth in Indian population over the last several decades has not adversely impacted the economic and industrial growth of the country, as India has now emerged as the 4th largest economy in the world and is likely to become the 3rd largest economy in the next few years. It is said that population should be considered as strength and has to be skillfully utilised to achieve growth in multiple directions and there is no justification for using the term population explosion. It is particularly stressed as “demographic strength”.
The other argument is that the fertility rate in India is already showing signs of decline with a few states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala having the fertility rate below the replacement level and in other states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh fertility rate is showing declining trend. What is required is to maintain the fertility rate at least at replacement level , which means population control measures are not required.
Further, the view of those opposing population control is that the contention that population growth will lead to social tension due to joblessness or other reasons , amounting to only fear mongering , as multiple job opportunities are now emerging in different sectors due to technological growth and innovations. It is argued that jobs can always be found, if there would be appropriate proactive strategies from the government to sustain the economic growth and consequent job prospects. Finally, the attention is drawn to the example of a few countries such as Russia , Japan and others having problems of declining population and ageing people affecting the balance in the age groups of the population. China brought a one child policy which brought down the growth of population and is now struggling to reverse the population fall trend.
Alternate view on need for population control :
Though all such arguments against population control look impressive on paper, while taking a holistic view of the entire Indian scenario , it would lead to different conclusions and recommendations.
It is said that India’s economic growth is impressive, as it is now 4th largest economy in the world. This is wishful and narrow view, However, the fact is that per capita income in India is very low as compared to the per capita income of developed countries such as USA ( 59,195 $ ), Japan (33000 $) , Russia (41,000 $), China (13,121 $ ) . As against this, India’s per capita income is only 2396 $.
Obviously , this implies that India has a very long way to go to reach the per capita income level that is needed to ensure an acceptable level of economic and social standards for people.
While economic growth may be sustained in the coming years , , this would not automatically result in improving the per capita income proportionately , due to the surging population.
The argument that the population control measures would lead to unsustainable demographic imbalance is flawed. While population control measures will lead to growth of ageing population particularly due to developments in medical technology , this need not cause any alarm . With the advancement of technology, communication standards , the tools available are such that people can continue to work even in the advanced age level, if only health conditions would be ensured.
Unchecked growth in population will certainly lead to joblessness particularly for the youth , since developments in artificial intelligence , robotic technology and automation would lead to reduced need for manpower to maintain the output levels.
Even with the declining fertility rate and due to longevity of life, population continues to increase in India and it is estimated to increase to about 1600 million by the year 2050.
While India is already the most populated country with highest population density in the world, the population level of 1600 million would be a matter for grave global concern . This would be so , since the outflow of population from India would happen and Indians would seek to enter other countries, seeking job opportunities and better living conditions. With such a large populated country , the stress suffered by the people due to high population density would certainly have an impact everywhere in other countries , caused by several factors such as higher food consumption, wastage leading to ecological imbalance etc. . In short, a highly and densely populated large country like India with comparatively low per capita income is bound to be a drag on the rest of the world in several ways.
What population strategy for India ?:
With the land size of the country remaining the same and with more population and growing population density , the congestion in public places would be difficult to manage.
Inevitably , an unacceptable level of population density would result in an increase in the intensity of conflict of interest between people, high levels of stress on health care facilities and large scale under employment leading to frustration. Accidents in public places and stampedes in stadiums and religious gatherings are already happening in a way in India that is causing concern.
So many other visible and invisible issues would happen that would be unmanageable for the government.
Certainly, India should target to have a population density of 300 or less per square kilometre, which should be achieved by careful planning and population management programme in the coming years..
Finally, it is often said that with enormous natural resources , India can be as rich as any other developed country in the world , if only the Indian population were to be at an appropriate level and such an appropriate level is much less than what India has today.
