Lessons from Australia, NZ

Lessons from Australia

COVID in Sri Lanka has reached a critical phase, with a large number of infections being reported every day, not to mention deaths. There was a widespread clamour from the medical fraternity for a full lockdown as opposed to the earlier travel restrictions that were widely observed in the breach. The Government was understandably reluctant to impose the harsh version of the lockdown due to the adverse effect on the economy and livelihoods, but it ultimately sided with medical professionals and announced an islandwide quarantine curfew.

Judging by all accounts, the Quarantine Curfew is being implemented to the letter by the Police and Security Forces, with no leeway given to those masquerading as essential service providers, the one segment that is allowed on the road during the period till August 30 apart from garment factory workers, farmers and a few other sectors. The Police should warn or even arrest those who have no reason to be on the roads, for they may potentially spread the disease to others if they are carriers of the virus by any chance. The public too should know that this is the ultimate aim of the lockdown – to prevent the wider spread of the disease.

However, one should not expect overnight reductions in case numbers or the death toll through the current lockdown. The results of the lockdown will be apparent only weeks later. Lockdowns are essentially a tool for viral disease mitigation and not a final solution in itself. It can only work with strict enforcement and public cooperation with regard to all health guidelines, not just the restriction of movement. This is why those who have no essential journeys should stay put without potentially spreading the disease or becoming infected themselves.

But, as we have already discovered during the many lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed from time to time, they are not a permanent solution for mitigating COVID. They have a devastating impact on the economy – especially at a time it is reeling from the loss of many income avenues such as import and export, trade, tourism, excise and customs. Besides, lockdowns affect everyone in equal measure, which means that even healthy individuals cannot contribute to the economy during this period. Moreover, the biggest hit is taken by the daily wage earners and the self-employed, of whom there are around eight million in this country. Their livelihoods disappear overnight whenever a lockdown is imposed.

Australia and New Zealand are two countries that imposed the harshest lockdowns in the world, with the former even threatening to jail any citizens living abroad who tried to come back. But even they have realised that lockdowns do more harm than good in the long term. This has prompted Australian Premier Scott Morrison to say that the county cannot afford to be under permanent lockdowns and the only option is to bring down COVID rates to manageable levels mainly through vaccination. In other words, he has told Australians that they will have to live with the virus in time to come, probably at endemic levels on the scale of the common cold, which is also caused by a Coronavirus.

One has to remember that Australia has a far stronger economy than Sri Lanka does, even under the present circumstances. If they are relying on vaccination, not lockdowns, to see them through the pandemic, there is little hope that we will be able to gain a substantial victory against COVID through repeated lockdowns. The only solution, as Morrison has advocated, is vaccination. And here we are clearly at an advantage, having given the first dose to 100 per cent of the target (over 30) population of 12 million. Nearly 50 per cent of this population segment has also got the second dose. This is a very good ratio by any yardstick.

The only concern is that around 300,000 people aged over 60 have evaded vaccination so far due to various reasons including disability, disease, lack of transport or old age. Unfortunately, this is the demographic that has reported the most number of hospitalizations and deaths. Therefore, the authorities are making a great effort to find and vaccinate them all, even to the extent of going from house to house and giving the jab at their doorsteps. This is a very commendable effort that deserves plaudits.

Apart from this, the vaccination drive is progressing smoothly. The country has already received around 20 million vaccine doses and at least an equal number of doses are on the way. It should be possible to inoculate everyone in the eligible group by the target date of September 10, whereupon the programme can be extended to the 18-30 group and later the 12-17 group (essentially schoolchildren). No country is yet inoculating the under 12 age group, so that can wait until overseas clinical trials are completed.

Our aim should be to reach herd immunity by immunising around 80 per cent of the population. Many experts predict that COVID will never really disappear. We may have to live with COVID for the rest of our lives, albeit a far less lethal version of it.